Irineu E. Carvalho Filho
Last Updated: January 16, 2012Irineu de Carvalho Filho is a Senior Economist in the Open Economy Macro Issues Division of the Research Department (RES) of the International Monetary Fund. Among other issues, he has worked on a wide range of applied economics topics related to international finance and macroeconomics, including the modeling of the precautionary savings motive for the current account of oil exporters, the development of methods for exchange rate assessment, and an empirical study on the performance of inflation targeting countries since the onset of the Great Recession. He has also published papers on the effects of social security expansion in Brazil, measurement of CPI bias and distributional consequences of real exchange rate movements in Brazil and Mexico, and the long-term consequences of European migration to southern Brazil. His research was published in top journals, including the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Development Economics. Irineu has also done country work on a wide variety of countries (more recently, Switzerland; before that, Colombia, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Dominica). Prior to joining the Fund, he was a consultant in a firm specialized in complex structured finance products, and obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 2000.
Email: idecarvalhofilho@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pir8.html
Fluent In: Portuguese.
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, MIT
Master in Economics, EPGE-FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Bachelor in Public Administration, EAESP-FGV, São Paulo, Brazil
Referee Activities:
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Empirical Economics, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), IMF Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of International Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Population Ageing, Journal of Public Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.
Editorial Activities:
Associate Editor for Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics
Awards and Honors:
Winner of the Interamerican Award for Research on Social Security, 2002
Co-winner of the John Heinz Dissertation Award, by the National Academy of Social Insurance, 2001
Dissertation Fellowship from the Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, 1999-2000
Research Grant from the Schultz Fund at MIT, 1999
Departmental Fellowship from the Department of Economics at MIT, 1997-1999
CNPq Scholarship for Ph.D. studies, 1995-1999
Seminar Presentation:
Cass Business School/ECB 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference, in London (May 2014); CEPR 9th Annual Workshop on Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence, in Barcelona (April 2014); U.S. Department of Treasury (March 2014); Georgetown Center for Economic Research, at Georgetown University (2013); Workshop on Financial Determinants of Exchange Rates at Banco d’Italia in Rome (2012); Global Crisis and Latin American Economies, at University of Southern California (2012), Economic History Association (2010), OxCarre 4th Annual Conference in Oxford, UK (2010), 3rd International Conference Migration & Développement in Paris (2010), Jacques Polak 8th Annual Research Conference (2007), Bread/CEPR Conference on Development Economics at London School of Economics, London (2007), IMF/WHD Workshop on Economic Growth (2006), Microeconomics of Growth Network Conference at World Bank (2006), LACEA (2005, 2006), CIESS (2002), NEUDC (2001).
Others:
The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources (with R. Bems), Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.
28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.
Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.
A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism, IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008 (with Marcos Chamon)
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IMF Books and Working Papers:
Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?, Working Paper No. 15/159, July 16, 2015
Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth, Working Paper No. 13/265, December 23, 2013
Other Published Materials
Medium-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Country Report No. 07/8; October 5, 2006
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Publications in Books and Conference Volumes
28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.
The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.
Irineu de Carvalho Filho is a Senior Economist in the Open Economy Macro Issues Division of the Research Department (RES) of the International Monetary Fund. Among other issues, he has worked on a wide range of applied economics topics related to international finance and macroeconomics, including the modeling of the precautionary savings motive for the current account of oil exporters, the development of methods for exchange rate assessment, and an empirical study on the performance of inflation targeting countries since the onset of the Great Recession. He has also published papers on the effects of social security expansion in Brazil, measurement of CPI bias and distributional consequences of real exchange rate movements in Brazil and Mexico, and the long-term consequences of European migration to southern Brazil. His research was published in top journals, including the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Development Economics. Irineu has also done country work on a wide variety of countries (more recently, Switzerland; before that, Colombia, Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados and Dominica). Prior to joining the Fund, he was a consultant in a firm specialized in complex structured finance products, and obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 2000.
Email: idecarvalhofilho@imf.org
Personal WebPage: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pir8.html
Fluent In: Portuguese.
Education:
Ph.D. in Economics, MIT
Master in Economics, EPGE-FGV, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Bachelor in Public Administration, EAESP-FGV, São Paulo, Brazil
Referee Activities:
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Economic Modelling, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Empirical Economics, Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), IMF Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Human Resources, Journal of International Development, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Population Ageing, Journal of Public Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.
Editorial Activities:
Associate Editor for Economia Aplicada/Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics
Awards and Honors:
Winner of the Interamerican Award for Research on Social Security, 2002
Co-winner of the John Heinz Dissertation Award, by the National Academy of Social Insurance, 2001
Dissertation Fellowship from the Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, 1999-2000
Research Grant from the Schultz Fund at MIT, 1999
Departmental Fellowship from the Department of Economics at MIT, 1997-1999
CNPq Scholarship for Ph.D. studies, 1995-1999
Seminar Presentation:
Cass Business School/ECB 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference, in London (May 2014); CEPR 9th Annual Workshop on Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence, in Barcelona (April 2014); U.S. Department of Treasury (March 2014); Georgetown Center for Economic Research, at Georgetown University (2013); Workshop on Financial Determinants of Exchange Rates at Banco d’Italia in Rome (2012); Global Crisis and Latin American Economies, at University of Southern California (2012), Economic History Association (2010), OxCarre 4th Annual Conference in Oxford, UK (2010), 3rd International Conference Migration & Développement in Paris (2010), Jacques Polak 8th Annual Research Conference (2007), Bread/CEPR Conference on Development Economics at London School of Economics, London (2007), IMF/WHD Workshop on Economic Growth (2006), Microeconomics of Growth Network Conference at World Bank (2006), LACEA (2005, 2006), CIESS (2002), NEUDC (2001).
Others:
The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources (with R. Bems), Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.
28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.
Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.
A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism, IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008 (with Marcos Chamon)
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?, Working Paper No. 15/159, July 16, 2015
Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth, Working Paper No. 13/265, December 23, 2013
The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis, Working Paper No. 13/228, November 06, 2013
The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis, Working Paper No. 13/228, November 06, 2013
The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes, Working Paper No. 13/8, January 11, 2013
The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes, Working Paper No. 13/8, January 11, 2013
Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility : Evidence From Brazil, Working Paper No. 12/84, March 01, 2012
Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment, Working Paper No. 10/45, February 01, 2010
Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries, Working Paper No. 09/281, December 01, 2009
Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Working Paper No. 09/33, February 01, 2009
Household Income As A Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence From A Social Security Reform, Working Paper No. 08/241, October 01, 2008
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico, Working Paper No. 08/197, August 01, 2008
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation in Brazil, Working Paper No. 06/275, December 01, 2006
Other Published Materials
Medium-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Country Report No. 07/8; October 5, 2006
Publications in Books and Conference Volumes
28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Topics), Art. 22, 2011.
The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of International Economics 84(1), 48-64, 2011.
The Myth of Post-Reform Income Stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico (with M. Chamon), Journal of Development Economics, 97: 368-386, 2012.
Household Income as a Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a Social Security Reform, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 60(2): 399-435, 2012.
Immigration and the Origins of Regional Inequality: Government-Sponsored European Migration to Southern Brazil Before World War I (with L. Monasterio), MPRA Paper 27954, Regional Science and Urban Economics, forthcoming.
Old-Age Benefits and Retirement Decisions of Rural Elderly in Brazil, Journal of Development Economics, 86: 129-146, 2008.
A Micro-Empirical Foundation for the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Populism (with M. Chamon), IMF Staff Papers, 55(3):481-510, 2008