Gaston Gelos
Last Updated: December 12, 2017
Gaston Gelos is Assistant Director and Chief of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Previously, he headed the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, where he was responsible for the analytical chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. Prior to that, he has held positions as an Advisor at the IMF Institute, as a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, and as the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He also worked as an economist in the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University. He has worked at the IMF since 1998.
Email: ggelos@imf.org
Fluent In: French, German, Spanish.
Education:
1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University
1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn
1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley
Previous Experience:
Division Chief, Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, 2013-2017
Advisor, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund, 2011-2013
Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011
Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010
Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007
Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments
Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997
Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995
Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94
Referee Activities:
Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico
Country work or Mission Assignment:
Mission Chief, Japan FSAP (2016-17)
Mission Chief, Nicaragua, 2010-11
Mission Chief, Uruguay, 2008-10
Resident Representative to Argentina and Uruguay, 2007-2010
Resident Representative to Uruguay, 2005-2007
Desk economist, Brazil team, 2003-2005
Desk Economist, Bulgaria team, 1999-2000
Seminar Presentation:
Frequent speaker at academic conferences and international policy fora.
Teaching:
Taught multiple courses on macroeconomic topics for government officials, 2011-13
Field of Expertise:
Banking
Macro-Financial Issues
Monetary Policy
International Finance
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IMF Books and Working Papers:
Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database, Working Paper No. 19/66, March 22, 2019
Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?, Working Paper No. 19/11, January 15, 2019
IMF Country Reports
“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103
"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46
Other Published Materials
“Differential Impact” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2012
“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008
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Publications in Journals (Refereed)
"Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming
"Inflation responses to commodity price shocks - how and why do countries differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2017
Other Published Materials
"Household indebtedness did not weaken US monetary transmission post-crisis" (with F. Grinberg, S. Khan, T. Mancini-Griffoli, M. Narita, U. Rawat), VoxEu blog, https://voxeu.org/article/household-indebtedness-did-not-weaken-us-monetary-transmission-post-crisis, February 2019
“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009
Gaston Gelos is Assistant Director and Chief of the Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Previously, he headed the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, where he was responsible for the analytical chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. Prior to that, he has held positions as an Advisor at the IMF Institute, as a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, and as the Fund's Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay. He also worked as an economist in the European, Research, and Western Hemisphere Departments. His research covers a range of topics including financial liberalization, banking issues in emerging markets, the behavior of international investors, financial contagion and crises, and inflation dynamics. Mr. Gelos holds a Ph.D. from Yale and a "Diplom" from Bonn University. He has worked at the IMF since 1998.
Email: ggelos@imf.org
Fluent In: French, German, Spanish.
Education:
1998 Ph.D. (Economics), Yale University
1994 "Diplom" (Economics), University of Bonn
1991-1992 Graduate coursework in Economics, University of California at Berkeley
Previous Experience:
Division Chief, Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, 2013-2017
Advisor, Institute for Capacity Development, International Monetary Fund, 2011-2013
Deputy Division Chief, Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund 2010-2011
Resident Representative for Argentina and Uruguay, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2007-2010
Resident Representative, International Monetary Fund, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2005-2007
Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Assignments in the Research, European, International Capital Markets, and Western Hemisphere Departments
Visiting Researcher, Banco de México, Mexico City, Research Department, May-June 1997
Consultant, World Bank, Washington, D.C., Middle East and North Africa Department II, 1995
Parliamentary Aide to Minister of State Helmut Schäfer (German First Deputy Foreign Minister), 1989-91, 1992-94
Referee Activities:
Referee for Applied Economics, American Economic Review, Economic Inquiry, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Inter-American Development Bank, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Finance, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, Journal of International Money and Finance, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Review of International Economics, Routledge books, Trimestre Económico
Country work or Mission Assignment:
Mission Chief, Japan FSAP (2016-17)
Mission Chief, Nicaragua, 2010-11
Mission Chief, Uruguay, 2008-10
Resident Representative to Argentina and Uruguay, 2007-2010
Resident Representative to Uruguay, 2005-2007
Desk economist, Brazil team, 2003-2005
Desk Economist, Bulgaria team, 1999-2000
Seminar Presentation:
Frequent speaker at academic conferences and international policy fora.
Teaching:
Taught multiple courses on macroeconomic topics for government officials, 2011-13
Field of Expertise:
Banking
Macro-Financial Issues
Monetary Policy
International Finance
IMF Books and Working Papers:
Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database, Working Paper No. 19/66, March 22, 2019
Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?, Working Paper No. 19/11, January 15, 2019
Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?, Working Paper No. 18/15, January 24, 2018
Changes in the Global Investor Base and the Stability of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets, Working Paper No. 15/277, December 28, 2015
Managing Economic Volatility in Latin America, March 27, 2014
Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks, Working Paper No. 13/156, July 03, 2013
Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks : How and Why Do Countries Differ?, Working Paper No. 12/225, September 01, 2012
International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion-A Survey, Working Paper No. 11/92, April 01, 2011
The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact, Working Paper No. 09/280, December 01, 2009
Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Dollarization: The Case of Uruguay, Occasional Paper No. 263, July 25, 2008
Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance -Trying to Explain the Puzzle, Working Paper No. 06/282, December 01, 2006
Banking Spreads in Latin America, Working Paper No. 06/44, February 01, 2006
What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis, Working Paper No. 05/109, June 01, 2005
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?, Working Paper No. 04/221, November 01, 2004
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion, Working Paper No. 04/131, July 01, 2004
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?, Working Paper No. 04/111, June 01, 2004
Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?, Working Paper No. 03/49, March 01, 2003
Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Market Banking Systems, Working Paper No. 02/186, November 01, 2002
Transparency and International Investor Behavior, Working Paper No. 02/174, October 01, 2002
The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 01/111, August 01, 2001
A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds, Working Paper No. 00/198, December 01, 2000
Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies, Working Paper No. 00/71, March 01, 2000
Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market - The Case of Mexico in 1994/95, Working Paper No. 00/28, January 01, 2000
Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral - Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector, Working Paper No. 99/25, March 01, 1999
IMF Country Reports
“Commodity Prices – Their Impact on Inflation in Uruguay” (with Rita Babihuga), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 09/103
"The Inflation Process in Uruguay," (with Fernanda Rossi Iriondo), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, Country Report 08/46
“Post-Crisis Credit: Facts, Lessons, and Prospects” (with Jorge Canales-Kriljenko), in: Uruguay: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 06/427
“Why is Private Sector Credit so Low in Bulgaria?,” (with Tarhan Feyzioðlu), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
"Does Bulgaria Suffer from a Competitiveness Problem? A Look at Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Export Performance,” (with Angana Banerji), in Bulgaria: Selected Issues,” IMF Staff Country Report 00/54
Other Published Materials
“Differential Impact” (with Pelin Berkmen, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2012
“A Survey of Financial Linkages,” (with Martin Cerisola, Geoffrey Banister, and Fabian Valencia), in: (Mühleisen, Martin, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, eds: “Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the America,” International Monetary Fund, October 2008
“Shocks to Balance Sheets and Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003
“Are Foreign Investors in Emerging Market Economies A Panic-Prone Herd?” (with Eduardo Borensztein), Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, December 2001
Publications in Journals (Refereed)
"Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming
"Inflation responses to commodity price shocks - how and why do countries differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2017
"The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," (with P. Berkmen, R. Rennhack, and J.P. Walsh), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2012
"Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?” (with Ratna Sahay and Guido Sandleris), Journal of International Economics, March 2011
“Brazil's Long-Term Growth Performance: Trying to Explain the Puzzle,” (with Ricardo Adrogué and Martin Cerisola), Journal of Economic Studies, September 2010
"Banking Spreads in Latin America," Economic Inquiry, October 2009
“What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? – An Empirical Analysis” (with Martín Cerisola), Applied Economics, May 2009
“When in Peril, Retrench – Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion” (with Fernando Broner and Carmen Reinhart), Journal of International Economics, June 2006
“Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings” (with Shang-Jin Wei), Journal of Finance, December 2005
“Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), IMF Staff Papers, November 2004
“Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?,” (with Oya Celasun and Alessandro Prati), Economic Policy, October 2004
“Consolidation and Market Structure in Emerging Markets Banking Systems,“ (with Jorge Roldós), Emerging Markets Review, March 2004
“A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,” (with Eduardo Borensztein), IMF Staff Papers, April 2003
“Leaders and Followers: Emerging Market Fund Behavior During Tranquil and Turbulent Times”, (with Eduardo Borensztein), Emerging Markets Review, March 2003
“Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets: Firm-Level Evidence From Mexico”, Economics Letters, March 2003
“Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market – A New Measure and an Application to Mexico 1994/95,” (with T. Becker and A. Richards), International Journal of Economics and Finance, July 2002
“Financial Liberalization, Credit Constraints, and Collateral: Investment in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector” (with Alejandro Werner), Journal of Development Economics, February 2002
“Irreversibilities in Fixed Capital Adjustment: Evidence from Mexican and Colombian Plants,” (with Alberto Isgut), Economics Letters, December 2001
“Fixed Capital Adjustment - Is Latin America Different?” (with Alberto Isgut), Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2001
“Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies,” (with Ratna Sahay), 2001, Economics of Transition, Vol. 1, March 2001
“La Inversión Fija en México - Una Revisión Selectiva,” Gaceta de Economía, December 1999
Other Published Materials
"Household indebtedness did not weaken US monetary transmission post-crisis" (with F. Grinberg, S. Khan, T. Mancini-Griffoli, M. Narita, U. Rawat), VoxEu blog, https://voxeu.org/article/household-indebtedness-did-not-weaken-us-monetary-transmission-post-crisis, February 2019
“Transparenz schützt Schwellenländer,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 26, 2009
"International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion," in: G. Caprio, Jr. (ed.): "Handbooks in Financial Globalization," Elsevier, 2012
"The rise in nonbank finance and monetary policy transmission" (with L. Brandao), VoxEu blog, December 2017, https://voxeu.org/article/rise-nonbank-finance-and-monetary-policy-transmission
"Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?" (with Y. Ustyugova), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2012
"Financial Market Spillovers – How Different Are the Transition Economies?,” (with Ratna Sahay), in: Forbes, K. and S. Claessens (eds.): “International Financial Contagion,” Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
The growing importance of financial spillovers from emerging markets (with J. Surti), August 2016
The insurance sector and systemic risk (with N. Valckx), Vox blog, July 2016
“Contagion and the Behavior of International Equity Funds,” in: Karman, A., M. Frenkel, and B. Scholtens (eds.): “Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises,” 2004, Springer-Verlag
Resilience of market liquidity (with L. Brandao Marques), Vox blog, January 2016
"Asset Management and Financial Stability," (with H. Oura), Vox blog, July 2015
“Investment Efficiency, Human Capital and Migration: A Productivity Analysis of the Jordanian Economy,” World Bank Regional Discussion Paper No.14, 5/1995
"Global Banks Turning More Local," (with F. Lambert), Vox blog, May 2015
“Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks” (with L. Brandao Marques and N. Melgar), Econbrowser (www.econbrowser.com), December 2014